Discussion of PV Rate of Growth for Apollo II in Mexico

"Nonrenewable resources should be exploited, but at a rate equal to the creation of renewable substitutes."

Objective: To develop 30 watts (one lightbulb) per capita within 10 years.
Assumptions: 2 MW sales and/or manufacturing capacity and 8 MW installed today
Population is 89 million at 1990, stable (does not grow)
Conclusion: Growth Rate of Industrial Capacity = 106.5% per year
#Years YearManufacturing Capacity
MegaWatts		Cumulative Installed
MegaWatts		Installed per Capita
Watts
1 1996 2 8 <1
2 1997 4 12 <1
3 1998 9 21 <1
... continuing in like fashion ...
8 2003 320 625 7
9 2004 661 1,286 15
10 2005 1,366 2,652 30

Objective: To develop 30 watts (one lightbulb) per capita within 10 years.
Assumptions: Kick start, 50 MW manufacturing capacity installed and operating by 1998
Population is 89 million at 1990, stable
Conclusion: Growth Rate of Industrial Capacity = 34.5% per year
#Years YearManufacturing Capacity
MegaWatts		Cumulative Installed
MegaWatts		Installed per Capita
Watts
0 1996 2 8 <1
1 1997 50 58 <1
2 1998 67 125 1
3 1999 90 216 2
... continuing in like fashion ...
9 2005 535 1,951 22
10 2006 720 2,671 30

Objective: To develop 30 watts (one lightbulb) per capita within 10 years.
Assumptions: Kick start, 100 MW manufacturing capacity installed and operating by 1998
Population is 89 million at 1990, stable
Conclusion: After kick start, growth rate of industrial capacity = 20.5% per year
#Years YearManufacturing Capacity
MegaWatts		Cumulative Installed
MegaWatts		Installed per Capita
Watts
1 1998 100 100 1
2 1999 121 221 2
3 2000 145 366 4
... continuing in like fashion ...
8 2005 369 1,681 19
9 2006 445 2,125 24
10 2007 536 2,661 30

Objective: To develop ~300 watts per capita (same as present day capacity of 25,299 MW according to IEA, 1990) within 20 years.
Assumptions: Kick start, 100 MW manufacturing capacity installed and operating by 1998
Population is 89 million at 1990, stable
Conclusion: Necessary Growth Rate of Industrial Capacity = 22.5% per year
#Years YearManufacturing Capacity
MegaWatts		Cumulative Installed
MegaWatts		Installed per Capita
Watts
1 1998 100 100 1
2 1999 123 223 3
3 2000 150 373 4
4 2001 184 556 6
5 2002 225 782 9
... continuing in like fashion ...
17 2014 2,571 13,556 153
18 2015 3,150 16,706 189
19 2016 3,859 20,564 232
20 2017 4,727 25,291 285

Objective: To develop 600 watts per capita (double present day capacity) within 20 years in order to support conversion to electric vehicles powered by a sustainable source
Assumptions the same, applying the same model
Conclusion: Growth Rate of Industrial Capacity = 28.6% per year
Home Apollo2 updated 2000 July 27
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