"Nonrenewable resources should be exploited, but at a rate equal to the creation of renewable substitutes." |
Objective: To develop 30 watts (one lightbulb) per capita within 10 years. | ||||
Assumptions: 2 MW sales and/or manufacturing capacity and 8 MW installed today Population is 89 million at 1990, stable (does not grow) | ||||
Conclusion: Growth Rate of Industrial Capacity = 106.5% per year | ||||
#Years | Year | Manufacturing Capacity MegaWatts | Cumulative Installed MegaWatts | Installed per Capita Watts |
1 | 1996 | 2 | 8 | <1 |
2 | 1997 | 4 | 12 | <1 |
3 | 1998 | 9 | 21 | <1 |
... continuing in like fashion ... | ||||
8 | 2003 | 320 | 625 | 7 |
9 | 2004 | 661 | 1,286 | 15 |
10 | 2005 | 1,366 | 2,652 | 30 |
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Objective: To develop 30 watts (one lightbulb) per capita within 10 years. | ||||
Assumptions: Kick start, 50 MW manufacturing capacity installed and operating by 1998 Population is 89 million at 1990, stable | ||||
Conclusion: Growth Rate of Industrial Capacity = 34.5% per year | ||||
#Years | Year | Manufacturing Capacity MegaWatts | Cumulative Installed MegaWatts | Installed per Capita Watts |
0 | 1996 | 2 | 8 | <1 |
1 | 1997 | 50 | 58 | <1 |
2 | 1998 | 67 | 125 | 1 |
3 | 1999 | 90 | 216 | 2 |
... continuing in like fashion ... | ||||
9 | 2005 | 535 | 1,951 | 22 |
10 | 2006 | 720 | 2,671 | 30 |
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Objective: To develop 30 watts (one lightbulb) per capita within 10 years. | ||||
Assumptions: Kick start, 100 MW manufacturing capacity installed and operating by 1998 Population is 89 million at 1990, stable | ||||
Conclusion: After kick start, growth rate of industrial capacity = 20.5% per year | ||||
#Years | Year | Manufacturing Capacity MegaWatts | Cumulative Installed MegaWatts | Installed per Capita Watts |
1 | 1998 | 100 | 100 | 1 |
2 | 1999 | 121 | 221 | 2 |
3 | 2000 | 145 | 366 | 4 |
... continuing in like fashion ... | ||||
8 | 2005 | 369 | 1,681 | 19 |
9 | 2006 | 445 | 2,125 | 24 |
10 | 2007 | 536 | 2,661 | 30 |
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Objective: To develop ~300 watts per capita (same as present day capacity of 25,299 MW according to IEA, 1990) within 20 years. | ||||
Assumptions: Kick start, 100 MW manufacturing capacity installed and operating by 1998 Population is 89 million at 1990, stable | ||||
Conclusion: Necessary Growth Rate of Industrial Capacity = 22.5% per year | ||||
#Years | Year | Manufacturing Capacity MegaWatts | Cumulative Installed MegaWatts | Installed per Capita Watts |
1 | 1998 | 100 | 100 | 1 |
2 | 1999 | 123 | 223 | 3 |
3 | 2000 | 150 | 373 | 4 |
4 | 2001 | 184 | 556 | 6 |
5 | 2002 | 225 | 782 | 9 |
... continuing in like fashion ... | ||||
17 | 2014 | 2,571 | 13,556 | 153 |
18 | 2015 | 3,150 | 16,706 | 189 |
19 | 2016 | 3,859 | 20,564 | 232 |
20 | 2017 | 4,727 | 25,291 | 285 |
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Objective: To develop 600 watts per capita (double present day capacity) within 20 years in order to support conversion to electric vehicles powered by a sustainable source | ||||
Assumptions the same, applying the same model | ||||
Conclusion: Growth Rate of Industrial Capacity = 28.6% per year |
updated 2000 July 27 contact us |