Apollo II
Global Wind Turbine Growth Rate

"Nonrenewable resources should be exploited, but at a rate equal to the creation of renewable substitutes."

Scenario: World oil climbs to 65 million barrels/day around the year 2000 and then declines to 40 million barrels/day by the year 2020.
Objective: Wind Turbine Generators will meet 20% of the oil shortfall by the year 2020
An Aside

Before we look at this scenario, let's look at AWEA's scenario -- the growth rate implied by the American Wind Energy Association's prediction of 18,500 MW worldwide by the year 2005.

#Years YearManufacturing Capacity
GigaWatts		Cumulative Installed
GigaWatts
0 1995 1.30 5.00
1 1996 1.31 6.31
2 1997 1.32 7.63
3 1998 1.33 8.95
... continuing in like fashion ...
8 2003 1.37 15.73
9 2004 1.38 17.12
10 2005 1.39 18.51
Conclusion: AWEA's projected growth in the installed base is about 14% per year, but the rate of growth for industrial capacity is projected at only 0.7%, less than 1% per year!
Now let's consider an alternative scenario which is more responsive to the predicted timing of the Hubbert Peak:
Assumptions
  • Manufacturing capacity in 1995 = sales = 1,300 MW = 1.3 GW
  • PV installed worldwide as of the end of 1995 = 5,000 MW = 5 GW
  • World population in 2020 = 8 billion
  • 1 barrel of oil = 5.8×106 BTU
  • Wind Turbine Capacity Factor = 25% = 6 hrs/day
  • All existing and new capacity remains in service through 2020.
Calculations
  • Shortfall = 65×106 Bbl - 40×106 Bbl = 25×106 Bbl
  • 25×106 Bbl × 20% × 5.8×106 BTU/Bbl ÷ (3.413 BTU/Watt × 6 hrs/day) = 1,416 GW
#Years YearManufacturing Capacity
GigaWatts		Cumulative Installed
GigaWatts
0 1995 1.30 5.00
1 1996 1.61 6.61
2 1997 1.99 8.60
3 1998 2.47 11.07
... continuing in like fashion ...
10 2005 11.04 55.57
................
23 2018 178 923
24 2019 221 1,143
25 2020 273 1,416
Conclusion: Growth rate of industrial capacity required to meet 20% of oil shortfall = 24% per year!
1,062 GW ÷ 8 Billion population = 177 Watts per capita (or 45 watts on the basis of 24 hrs/day)
Home Apollo2 updated 2000 July 27
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